Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Joe's Numbers are Sinking
The new Behavior Research Center's Rocky Mountain Poll was just released - it shows that if the election were held today Joe Arpaio would be leading Dan Saban 52% - 38% with 10% undecided.
However, this is with a 5% Margin of Error - meaning that the race could actually be 47%-43% with 10% undecided.
Also of note...Arpaio's Negatives continue to rise. In November of 2007 Negatives were at 16% - now they are at 28%.
Possibly the most concerning for Arpaioites - only 65% of Republicans plan on backing the Sheriff this time around. For Dan Saban this news has to be huge. First off, he had 44% of us voting for him 4 years ago in the Primary. If he can get anywhere near that (roughly 50K-60K actual votes) from registered Republicans Arpaio is done. Heck, if Saban can get 20% of the Repulican vote Arpaio's day's are over.
Finally, this could also be seen in Democratic circles as reason to start backing Saban financially.